What you need to know about the Philippine economy
In the first quarter of 2019, the Philippine GDP grew 7.3 percent year-on-year, according to the Philippine Statistical Authority (PSA).
It was a strong start, surpassing the 8.5 percent annual growth of the prior quarter.
The growth was the highest in the world for the first time since December 2017.
That was the first growth rate in the last year of President Rodrigo Duterte’s administration.
The first quarter GDP numbers were released by the Office of the Philippine Statistics Administrator on Monday.
The PSA also released its first quarter forecast, which shows the country will have a solid start to the new year, even though the economy is still a bit sluggish.
The Philippines economy is expected to grow at 6.8 percent in 2019, compared to 6.6 percent in 2018, and 7.2 percent in 2017.
The Philippine economy is predicted to grow 7.1 percent in 2020, and 8.3 per cent in 2021.
The PSA said the Philippine economic recovery will take at least five years to fully materialize.
What is PSA projecting for 2019?
The economy is projected to grow 6.7 percent in 2021, with 6.5 per cent growth expected in 2022.
That is still above the 7.8 per cent annual growth rate that the government projected for the entire fiscal year.
That 6.3-percent growth rate was in line with the 7 percent growth the government had projected for fiscal 2018.
PSA is projecting 6.9 percent growth for 2020, 7.5 in 2021 and 8 per cent for 2022.
The government has not provided a projection for the year 2021.
What should you be watching out for?
The Philippines government has announced it will begin the process of setting up an independent central bank.
The president has promised that a central bank would be established within a year of taking office.
What happens if the central bank is not established?
The PSB is the country’s central bank, the agency that sets interest rates and manages monetary policy.
The central bank can only issue new debt to the public.
The country has no money printing mechanism.
The Bank of the Philippines has said it has not been able to meet the need for monetary stimulus and inflation.
What does the PSA say about the economic growth of 2019?
It said the country has a solid recovery, with the economy expanding by 7.6 per cent year-over-year in 2019.
That number will be revised upward, to 7.7 per cent, to 6 per cent over the next three years, and 6.1 per cent each year after that.
It expects a 4.3.
per cent economic growth in 2020.
It said growth of 6.2 per cent was the best growth in 20 years.
It added that the country is on track to achieve 7.0 per cent GDP growth in 2021 if all of the economic reforms outlined in the 2017 presidential proclamation are implemented.
What if the economy slows?
What if growth slows, or the PTA projects a slowdown?
If growth slows in 2019 and 2020, it will be because the government has created too many jobs and has not given them enough training, said Dr. Juan Carlos Quezon, a professor at the Manila-based School of Economics and Public Policy.
He said the government should use the first two years to promote the creation of more jobs, and raise wages.
If the economy continues to grow slower in 2019 or 2020, then the PPA is likely to revise down its growth projection for 2020 to a 7.9-percent increase.
What do Filipinos want?
The Philippine population is 65.4 million, which is almost two-thirds of the total population of 1.3 billion.
More than two-fifths of the population lives in metropolitan Manila, which has been plagued by rising crime and high unemployment.
The city is home to about 8,000,000 people.
Manila is also one of the most corrupt cities in the country, with official corruption accounting for almost one-fifth of the city’s $1.8-trillion in public coffers in 2019 (compared to an annual inflation rate of about 3.2%).
The Philippines is also facing rising health costs and chronic shortages of medicines and other medical supplies, said Ms. Pangilinan, who heads the Institute of Health and Development Policy and Research at the University of the Andes.
“What we have is a huge infrastructure deficit.
We need a new, big public investment program to fix the infrastructure,” she said.
She said the problem will be compounded if the country does not develop a strong economic recovery.
Ms. Quezon said the PBA should set aside money for the Pampanga Dam and build a new railway.
If necessary, the PBP should be set aside for the Philippines to build a rail system.
How does PSA expect the economy to grow?
The PBA forecasts growth of 8.4 per cent